The Hidden Scenario Bet Inside Every Critical Materials ETF
When a fund fact sheet tells you that “global demand for electricity may rise 157% by 2050,” it sounds like a fact. It isn’t. It’s one branch of a decision tree — a single scenario chosen from a range that, for some of the minerals inside that fund, spans a forty-fold difference in projected 2040 demand. Investors scrolling past a year-to-date return figure rarely see the branch they’re actually standing on, let alone the ones they aren’t.