Resilience Isn’t the Same as Safety: What 2026’s “Steady” Markets Are Still Hiding
Halfway through 2026, the dominant story in market commentary is not collapse but endurance. Despite tariffs, war, sticky inflation, and central banks that refuse to cut rates as fast as markets would like, the global economy has mostly done what skeptics said it couldn’t: it held together. That is a genuinely useful fact. It is also, on its own, a poor guide to how much risk sits inside a typical portfolio right now — because resilience at the level of GDP and corporate earnings does not automatically translate into calm at the level of bond prices, currency swings, or concentrated equity positions.